With the addition of Santana, if Pedro stays healthy all season, Maine continues to pitch as he has this Spring, and Perez pitches a little more consistently (or even the same as last year), the Mets will win the East. The 5th starter is a question at present but the 1-4 are better than any other team in the East. Their bullpen, of course, is also a concern (what team's isn't) but I think it will be good enough that they will be on top at the end of the season. The Phils and Braves will stay close and make it a very competitive, interesting race but the Mets will prevail. I don't believe the Phils or Braves pitching, especially starting pitching, can match the Mets. The Phils pen is as bad or worse than the Mets. Smoltz and Glavine are past their prime but still have some wins in their arms (though there's rumblings about Smoltz's arm) and I think the Braves have the best pen of the three, but after the "old two," I'm not sold on the Braves other SPs.
Here's how I see the NL East:
- Mets 93-69
- Phils 89-73
- Braves 88-74
- Nats 71-91
- Marlins 69-93
In the Central, it'll be a two-team race between the Cubbies and the Brewers. The Cubs will prevail and I even like them to win 90 games, edging out the Brew Crew on the last day of the season. The Cards and 'Stros will fall in the standings and I see the Reds improving and almost winning as many as they lose. They've got some good young arms but, unfortunately, they'll be pitching in hitter-friendly Cinci's ballpark. I'm pulling for Jr. to stay healthy all year and have a big offensive year. The Bucs will...."be the Bucs" but they could possibly finish ahead of either St. Louis or Houston...but I doubt it.
Here's my NL Central prediction:
In the West, it could be any of 4 teams that win it but my money is on Arizona. With the addition of Haren, it can only help them. The one BIG question is their closer. Lyon has been handed the job at the beginning of Spring but he has been "lit up" just about every time he's pitched this Spring. The big flame thrower, Pena, may get the job by default once the season starts if Lyon keeps on as he has this Spring. I think the Dodgers will be improved and the Rockies and Padres will hang in there and make it interesting. The Giants have some good young pitching but no offense to go with it. Their pitchers could have the best ERAs with losing records.
Here's how I see the NL West:
- D-Backs 94-68
- Dodgers 90-72
- Rockies 87-76
- Padres 86-77
- Giants 68-94
The Dodgers will win the Wild Card.
The Mets will win the NL pennant and go to the World Series.
I'll be posting my AL predictions, hopefully tomorrow (maybe even later tonight), so you can see who the Mets will be playing then.